Content
- At least someone’s had a good day…
- Paul Kealy’s five-step guide to finding a winner
- 50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
- Ayr Gold Cup Trends
- Racing Results for Monday 22 April 2024
- Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for Race 5 👇🏼
- Horse racing tips: Newton Abbot and Nottingham – Wednesday October 30
- Runners and race-by-race tips for Goodwood on Friday
- Tiger Roll notches his third Festival win
- Cheltenham Festival Stats for All Races
- Get £30 in FREE BETS when you bet just £10!
- Horse Racing in the UK
There might be 34 runners but MR.INCREDIBLE sounds so similar to my husband that I really have no other choice. The biggest race of the Jumps season is upon us and we’ve got you sorted. Over the years, the vastly experienced member of the weighing room has been Ireland’s champion jockey on three occasions. “I’ve been in the gym and have been doing lots of fitness work, but there is a big difference between being fit and being race-fit. In the months after the fall, Russell faced a gruelling recovery, having bolts drilled into his head and weights hung from his head to realign his spine.
At least someone’s had a good day…
- Blackbow and Felix Desy look their principal hopes this time around.
- This coincides with the rise of mobile betting, and underlying trends in sports betting that have seen football and tennis gain more ground.
- “It’s special to be a part of and it’s a very difficult feat to bring her over here at this time of year when it is approaching the Australian winter and prepare her – Henry has done a top job.
- After third placings at Pontefract and Newmarket in April, Eilean Dubh was back in business at Hamilton Park the following month and followed up in a big field at York a fortnight later.
- Racing against the far rail from a draw in stall one, David Egan got bumped and bored when attempting to get through on the run to the final furlong, just as Raasel swept to the front down the outside.
- It should be remembered that a maiden in late February will be easier to win than one in late November, most of the runners already multiple non-winners by then.
Those rated higher than 140 won 47 races and lost a relatively small 54 points at SP and 2.75 points at BSP. Noel Meade has an infamous record at the Festival and, while he’s 0 from 13 in this section of races, his Road To Riches was third in both the 2015 Gold Cup and the 2016 Ryanair Chase. Paul Nicholls is still the winning-most Open Grade 1 trainer in the past decade, with ten such victories to his name.
Paul Kealy’s five-step guide to finding a winner
She will also have to prove her stamina on this first attempt beyond two miles, her pedigree not guaranteeing she’ll stay. Queen’s Brook will be Gordon Elliott’s hope for the race, the mare having run third in the 2020 Champion Bumper behind Ferny Hollow before skipping last year’s Festival. Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.
50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
In another life his jockey Nico de Boinville might have been one of those soldiers who is unexceptional in peacetime but extraordinarily cool under fire. After Douvan had crashed out at the last ditch, while leading, there were five horses in with a chance turning in. High quality Saturday with the second day at Wetherby who feature a pair of Grade Two races plus a Listed.
Ayr Gold Cup Trends
- As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.
- And Matt Tombs in his excellent matchbook content added that five of the 14 runners to start with a chase rating 7lb+ lower than their hurdle mark managed to win in the last 13 renewals.
- Marie’s Rock had recently run third in a mares‘ Grade 2 at Doncaster and Love Envoi was about to win a Wexford bumper on her first start.
- If you are looking to place a bet on this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet.
- 2023 less markets were traded – 17,459 – but a with a similar profit to 2022.
- A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival.
- On that cheerful note, let’s dive into the latest renewal, with just the seven runners meaning there’s no point looking for an each-way angle into the race.
- Although top UK racing tipsters, followers of Australian races have also benefited greatly, with our well-researched analyses.
- There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences.
His run in the Lockinge last time was an outstanding run, and he’s confirmed that today, so I’m thrilled. “We’ll see if anything comes out in the wash, and the one thing is, we always questioned the mile and whether that would be the end of his gauge. Whether this horse with racing has got quicker and so maybe coming back in trip might be what we need to be looking at.
Racing Results for Monday 22 April 2024
Nothing looks value at that sort of a price, but owner J P McManus has met his objective of getting to the Festival with a chance. He was a very smart juvenile hurdler and the Triumph winner in 2021. In the following season he was bested three times by Teahupoo Bolts Up Daily at two mile trips before having a long (nearly two years) spell on the sidelines. Back this season as an older, stronger horse he’s won two of three chases, both ungraded. In between times, he was thumped in the G2 Florida Pearl over three miles.
Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for Race 5 👇🏼
Racing against the far rail from a draw in stall one, David Egan got bumped and bored when attempting to get through on the run to the final furlong, just as Raasel swept to the front down the outside. A neck separated the pair at the winning post, with Existent back in fourth and Equilateral, who also had a hard-luck story to tell, fnishing sixth. Roger Varian’s sprinter was unlucky not to take the spoils at Sandown, enduring a troubled passaged over the minimum trip. Raasel was in front that day but the selection has a fine chance of turning the tables. I’ve been quietly backing Tiger Roll all winter to win the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.
Horse racing tips: Newton Abbot and Nottingham – Wednesday October 30
Like all humans, trainers are creatures of habit, so get to know theirs. Some will have really good records at certain tracks and really poor records at others. Some will have regular quiet spells at particular times of the year and other spells when the winners readily flow.
- However, upon closer inspection, it seems more like a handicap in terms of the betting.
- Bonus funds are separate to Cash funds and subject to 35x wagering the total bonus & cash.
- English Oaks looked smart when hacking up here in the Buckingham Palace.
- By maintaining detailed records of your wagers, you can analyse your betting patterns, identify profitable strategies, and pinpoint areas for improvement.
- More than that, the same horses seem to have hit the frame with regularity.
Runners and race-by-race tips for Goodwood on Friday
Much has been made of the wind operation that prevented him returning to racecourse action until Newbury last month, but it was a minor procedure that he underwent. Altior showed the problem was behind him when soon putting Politologue to the sword that day and winning by four lengths. This was a fine display – close to his best previous form – as Politologue had been in the ascendancy with three smart wins in top class races to his credit.
Tiger Roll notches his third Festival win
Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.
Cheltenham Festival Stats for All Races
His progressive chase form over three miles plus is enough to put him in with a solid shout anyway, but it was his latest performance, when chasing home the smart Our Duke over 2½ miles that underlines his class. The trip would have been plenty sharp enough for Presenting Percy – he had won over 3m 5f two runs earlier – yet he traded blows with a horse that is third favourite for Friday’s Timico Gold Cup. As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.
He’ll likely be a similar price on the day if it’s good to soft ground, and then might be worth a saver; he’d probably be opposable on softer. Meanwhile, more materially, the sweet spot is, well, any horse younger than ten. From micro representation this century, a six-year-old has won (Long Run, 2011), while the majority of winners are aged seven to nine, as are the majority of runners.
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Exhibit A to that end are the two races – both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company – in one month, the final month of last year. If that’s the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote. Any horse could come down or have a heart murmur in the heat of combat; Shishkin could get beaten by Energumene; a previously unsighted dark horse could emerge in one of the novice chases (though that feels unlikely). Unlike CPS, EA has been slated to start twice and has started – and finished first – twice. He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.
Horse Racing in the UK
The Coral-Eclipse looks a one-way Enable fest now that Lord North is out of the race so I’m going elsewhere on the Sandown card on Sunday. O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects. And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour. He has shown his best here and went close over course and distance last time out.
Veneer of Charm wins the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle
Doddiethegreat might be Nicky’s main hope, but I’d not be dismissive of First Street either. Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022. Another class animal with the right sort of mark from which to go well. Having written about these two horses, I was curious as to how Willie’s maiden winner to Grade 1 hurdlers have performed.
The Festival Bumper is a good example of race trends evolving, and the trend is away from big-priced winners. Four of the last five winners were returned 7/2 or shorter and the outlier was the 11/1 Willie Mullins trained Ferny Hollow ridden by Paul Townend. All the last ten winners of the Champion Bumper where LTO winners and all of them were aged five or six. Firstly, it’s well established that for all his talent he is ungenuine and has twice pulled himself up in front after trading at 1.01 on Betfair. I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it.
It is no surprise to see horses that ran in Ireland LTO coming out on top in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park. Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £. The data show a poor record for odds-on runners, but in general short- to mid-range prices do quite well. The cut off price looks to be at 14/1 – at this price and bigger Grade 1 runners have performed poorly.
- A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago.
- These seasoned experts analyse horse form, course record, jockeys and trainer form, and offer a well-rounded view of the race.
- Noel Meade has an infamous record at the Festival and, while he’s 0 from 13 in this section of races, his Road To Riches was third in both the 2015 Gold Cup and the 2016 Ryanair Chase.
- In that spirit, I’ll take the Brits to beat the Irish, primarily through Jpr One and Master Chewy.
- Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn.
- Mullins was actually unrepresented in that inaugural running, but then went on to win nine of the next ten editions, six of them with the fantastic though only occasionally seen Quevega.
On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price. Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet. That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name. I’ve backed loads of them, which is ridiculous, because I haven’t got a clue who wins.
English King was impressive at Lingfield last time, Kameko is a Guineas winner who needs to show he has the required stamina and Aidan O’Brien’s battalion are all capable of big improvement. MEETINGOFTHEWATERS is lightly raced and has a beautiful light weight. He will need to settle but if he does, he can be ahead of his mark. The latter won at the Cheltenham Festival under Conor O’Dwyer – and Russell teamed up with the staying chaser for most of his runs after a 658-day injury break. Other top horses he has ridden include Solwhit, the 2013 World Hurdle winner and 2006 Gold Cup hero War Of Attrition.
So you can know exactly what people are talking about, you should make sure to learn some of the following lingo. The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby. We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle. AU FLEURON holds an each-way squeak in what is a typically tough handicap hurdle to conclude the Cheltenham Festival.
Earlier on the programme, CHECKANDCHALLENGE can keep Will Buick’s in-form run going in the Group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (2.25). This is the right level for the three-year-old, who still has plenty of potential on the back of his solid effort last time out. MITBAAHY is fancied to win the battle of the fastest horses on Goodwood’s card in the King George Qatar Stakes (3.35). He has plenty of gears and the drop to 5f worked the oracle last time. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was contesting Group 1 contests by the end of the season.
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Racing against hardened, more experienced chasers he battled all the way to the line to get within 3 1/2 lengths of the Grade 1-winning Mullins chaser Capodanno and last year’s Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker. Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don’t like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here. An Ayr maiden winner from six attempts as a juvenile, the Roger Varian-trained son of Profitable has taken a step forward on each of his four starts this season.
Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but ‚without the favourite‘ is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban ‚without‘ is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver. The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future.
The first chase of the week is the Arkle Challenge Trophy, a two mile event for novices. If it perhaps lacks a little star quality this year – there can’t be a Shishkin/Altior/Douvan every time – it remains competitive from a betting perspective. The last ten years (from 2013 onwards) have seen Irish runners dominate these events more and more. To spell it out, in the most recent two Cheltenham Festivals, Irish runners have secured 22 wins compared with just six for the UK.
Last year’s runner-up Popmaster is a big price and United Approach can reward each-way backers. Five-time Irish champion Colin Keane takes the ride and that is a huge plus. Last year’s impressive winner Inspiral is a class act but it’s hard to have any confidence in her given she has blown the start on her last three runs.
That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence. He looks to have a good bit to find, though it’s possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above). Once you’ve made your selection, click the odds button in line with your horse and a window will appear showing the best bookmakers in the industry to provide you with a choice of where to back it.
Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record. The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4. My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc.
Log in to your existing bookmaker account when you first open the app, or via the ‚Accounts‘ tab. Go to the cards, pick a race and once you’ve made your selection, simply tap the odds button beside the horse you like.4. Our RP Recommends section has plenty of information and offers impartial advice from our experts in order to help know who, when, where and how to place your bet. Competition among bookmakers, particularly online, is fierce, so don’t be afraid to open accounts with multiple firms and if you are betting on course, be sure to shop around the betting ring and bet with whoever is offering the best price. The No Foto Needed service is an established member SBC’s Premium Tipster range and features winning racing tips from a true racing expert. He has not been disgraced since, but the drop back to six furlongs looks a good move.
Jonbon is expected to sit slightly off the fiercest of the sizzle. Rare Edition was very disappointing when only second in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, a race won in 2020 by Shishkin en route to Supreme glory. He apparently scoped dirty after the race and there has been some whispering about back spasms, both of which appear to have now been resolved.
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